Vegas: MSU 9/1 Odds To Win The Big Ten - Good Bet?

Vegas: MSU 9/1 Odds To Win The Big Ten - Good Bet?

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Vegas: MSU 9/1 Odds To Win The Big Ten - Good Bet?

The CollegeFootballNews people are at it again, demonstrating that they are smart when it comes to thinking and writing about college football things.  They’re saying Michigan State is the “Best Value” at 9/1 odds to win the Big Ten.

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Is there a person out there who is long on Rutgers at 1000/1 to win the Big Ten this season?

How about anyone loading up on the Illini at 1000/1?

We like Chris Ash and Lovie – both are guys who don’t necessarily fall into the category of “gym teacher” and it’d be nice to see them both get some things done at their respective outposts.

But anyone that plops down even a dollar on either of the aforementioned wagering options is probably someone who also has been saying – for a decade – that Tiger is right there, just a tweak or two away from ripping off another six or seven Majors.

What about the other lines that the geniuses in Vegas have put out?

Ohio State at 10/11 – I’m not a wagering expert and I’m not really sure I even know what “10/11” means and how that transfers into money somehow winding up in my checking account but it suggests that Ace Rothstein and Nicky Santoro are laying the wood on the Buckeyes.

The Badgers at 11/4 makes a little bit more sense to me, literally, since the first number is higher than the second number.

That 11/4 line also makes sense to me since Wisconsin, as always, is more loaded than anyone outside of the great state of Wisconsin wants to acknowledge, particularly the SEC people who have been Wisconsined for the last decade or so.

UMAA at 4/1?

This is where we are left with no choice other than to chuckle at all of the folks who expend so much energy and time – and dollars – on all of this stuff.

Friendly reminder to Ace and Nicky – UMAA finished the 2017 season 8-5, lost to all teams with a pulse, had an offense that was 96th in the nation in points per game (25.2), 106th in passing offense (171.2 yards per game) and 96th in the nation in total offense (349 yards per game).

Mississippi transfer Shea Patterson is, supposedly, going to lead UMAA’s offense and improve on last year’s woeful attack.

First rule in seeing a transfer as a savior: ask yourself why the place from where he’s transferring is letting him bolt.

If Shea Patterson can lead UMAA to the Big Ten Championship, I’ll be the first person to give him the credit he deserves.

But is…….Shea Patterson……a guy who left Mississippi…..going to magically and dramatically lift the UMAA offense out of the reality of these 2017 statistics that we will reiterate:

  • 96th in the nation in points per game (25.2)
  • 106th in passing offense (171.2 yards per game)
  • 96th in the nation in total offense (349 yards per game).

If Patterson gets UMAA in the Top 50, he should be knighted by the Queen of England.

In 2003, John L. Smith’s Michigan State team was coming off of an 8-5 season and a 17-3 loss to Nebraska in the Alamo Bowl.

Naturally, Vegas had Michigan State at 4/1 to win the Big Ten in 2004, right?

Does Vegas have it at 4/1 that George Clooney finally saves Darfur?

Do Ace and Nicky have it at 4/1 that Harvey Weinstein makes it out of this thing unscathed?

Has the Westgate Superbook put out 4/1 odds that Scientology is normal?

If you’re laying down heavy cake on UMAA – just consider things prior to the commitment, take a moment to breathe, step out of the usual UMAA philosophical approach to everything and, instead, contemplate reality, and maybe contemplate the notion that UMAA is going to be 1-9 over the last ten years against its non-rivals from East Lansing when the clock strikes midnight on October 20th.

And that brings us to what Ace and Nicky think about the 2018 Michigan State Spartans.

According to Ace and Nicky, the Spartans come in at 9/1 to win the Big Ten.

Okay – that’s actually somewhat reasonable and acceptable and doesn’t make me laugh out loud at the notion that the wagerers are the smart people.

They might be smart, after all.

And, the folks at CollegeFootballNews bring this all into a neat and tidy package when they say that Michigan State is the “Best Value” in the Big Ten.

Michigan State, as a university and a place, in general, is the universe’s “Best Value” but that’s a discussion for another time.

For now, we maintain the football players and the football coaches that make up the 2018 Michigan State Spartans team are better than all but one of the teams in the Big Ten.

And, even the one team that has a few better football players and a coach who is equal in talent and skill to Michigan State’s coach isn’t guaranteed a victory over the Spartans when the Buckeyes come to East Lansing on November 10th in what may shape up as the biggest game of the season in the Big Ten and beyond.

The 48-3 thrashing in Columbus last season notwithstanding, the Spartans haven’t exactly withered when facing the Buckeyes.

So, if I understand the way this “wagering” thing works here, Michigan State at 9/1 to win the Big Ten means that if I place a $1 bet on Michigan State to win the Big Ten and they, indeed, go ahead and win the Big Ten, the Las Vegas people will give me $9 in return.

What would I do with the $9??

So many things.

Buy two or three tasty candy bars?

Invest the money by putting it into a smart IRA Rollover account that my wealth manager can help me create?

Buy a new garden hose since the one I’ve been using for many years is starting to fray in certain areas?

Perhaps I could spend the $9 on a new belt?

My mind is starting to carry itself away – I need to grab hold of myself and remain focused.

Okay – so, maybe we can all come away with a basic understanding and agreement that some of the odds that Las Vegas has published regarding teams’ chances of winning the Big Ten are a bit unusual and some are rooted in reality.

The belt I’m going to buy – it’s going to be a belt that has whales and other sea creatures emblazoned upon it.

The 2018 Big Ten Conference Championship Odds: What’s the best bet, who’ll win, and what are the best values?


Contact @PeteFiutak

The latest Big Ten Conference Championship Odds are out from the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook. Who’ll win, what’s the best long shot and what’s the best value?

Big Ten Team Previews
EAST: Indiana | Maryland | Michigan
Michigan St | Ohio St | Penn St | Rutgers

WEST: Illinois | Iowa | Minnesota
Nebraska | Northwestern | Purdue | Wisconsin

Big Ten

Ohio State 10/11

Wisconsin 11/4

Michigan 4/1

Penn State 6/1

Michigan State 9/1

Iowa 25/1

Nebraska 40/1

Northwestern 50/1

Minnesota 100/1

Purdue 100/1

Indiana 300/1

Illinois 1000/1

Rutgers 1000/1

The Right Play

Wisconsin: If you’re into minimizing risk, Wisconsin is the safe call mainly because it’s a virtual lock to get back to the Big Ten Championship game for a third straight season. Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State and even Michigan are all going to be deep in the chase for the East, while it’ll take something amazing to keep the Badgers from getting there from the West. The 11/4 odds aren’t wonderful for the value, but at least you’ll likely be alive  on December 1st.

The Best Value

Michigan State: The Spartans have to go to Penn State, but they miss Wisconsin and get Michigan and Ohio State in East Lansing. Four of the conference games are against teams that didn’t go bowling last year, but best of all, MSU is loaded with a team every bit as strong as the one that went to the College Football Playoff three years ago. At 9/1, there’s money to be made.

Stay Away From …

Michigan: It’s not that the Wolverines can’t or won’t finally get over the hump in the Jim Harbaugh era – the offense will finally be there to go along with the defense – but the value isn’t great. Michigan fans usually hammer their team and bring the odds down, and at 4/1, you’re better off going after Michigan State or Penn State. With trips to Northwestern, Michigan State and Ohio State, the schedule isn’t a help.

The Top Longshot

Nebraska: The Huskers don’t have the talent and they’re going to need at least a year for Scott Frost to start to work his magic, but at 40/1, they’re a fun flier. They have to go to Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin, but if they can somehow beat the Badgers and pull off an upset against Michigan State at home, they could hang around the West chase.

– CFN Preview 2018: Team Previews, Rankings, Features
– Ranking The Big Ten Coaches
– CFN All-Big Ten Team & Top 30 Players
– CFN Big Ten Preseason Rankings
– CFN Big Ten Team-By-Team Predictions
– Big Ten Schedules

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